Is Bitcoin’s monthly close bullish or bearish for the next semester?
Bitcoin’s price has crossed a symmetric triangle.
Long term technical indicators are bullish.
BTC is probably in the process of completing an ABC correction
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The price of Bitcoin Method reached a relatively positive monthly closing. Although price has broken out of a neutral pattern, short-term declines could occur before BTC resumes its uptrend.
BTC may have created a bearish candlestick in September, but it closed above a previous resistance zone. The current move is therefore probably a new test of the supports.
Price left a long lower wick behind, which is a sign of buying pressure.
Technical indicators are bullish. The RSI and MACD are on the rise, and the latter has turned positive. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the process of forming a bullish cross. This is a sign that the long term trend is probably bullish.
This rise was stable until the rejection at $ 10,959, which is the 0.786 fibonacci level of the previous decline. This rejection was found to be small, however, and the price is now in the process of trying again to overtake this zone.
Technical indicators have started showing weakness as both RSI and MACD are generating bearish divergences, albeit unconfirmed
If the price breaks above the aforementioned area, the next resistance would be at $ 11,200. This area also coincides with a long term descending resistance line.
The shorter-term, two-hour chart shows price is following an ascending support line and may have passed a symmetrical triangle (dotted). Due to this advance, the price is likely to test the $ 11,200 area again.
The MACD turned positive, although it is showing an unconfirmed bearish divergence.
It is likely that BTC started a bearish impulse on September 23 (blue below) and would have completed Wave 1 on September 26. The sub-wave count for waves 1 and 2 is shown in red.
If this count is correct, the BTC price is completing Sub-Wave B (in red), after which the Sub-Wave will complete Wave 2.
A possible target for its bottom would be at $ 10,542, or the 0.5 fibonacci level of the entire upward movement.
While it is possible that BTC completed its correction on September 30 with a low at $ 10,658, the upward movement seen since (in dark gray) seems more corrective than impulsive. It is therefore more plausible that the price is still in sub-wave B.
In conclusion, BTC could show a short term correction to $ 10,550, before resuming its upward movement.